CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-10T19:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19406/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with an eruption, dimming, and EUV wave SE of AR2962 (N12W12), best seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2022-03-10T18:42Z. Associated with below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z. | ARRIVAL NOTE UPDATE - from DONKI IPS entry (2022-03-13T06:35:00-IPS-001): Sudden jump in magnetic field amplitude reaching 20 nT as well as a jump in speed, density, and temperature. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components with a decrease in temperature indicating a flux rope passage. Bz mostly north during the flux rope passage starting around 2022-03-13T22:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T10:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T16:38Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 677.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 413.211 Acceleration: 1.41570 Duration in seconds: 249305.05 Duration in days: 2.8854751 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.42 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 766.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/03/2022 Time: 16:38 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 51.18 hour(s)
Difference: -6.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-03-11T07:00Z
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